General Argument, the general argument against the fuel subsidy removal is the impact it is having on the prices of goods and services across the nation. Oil rich Nigeria currently has close to 90% of its population living below the poverty line ($1 a day). It is inarguable that the greater proportion of Nigerians experience untold hardship, worsened by the absence of utilities and public amenities such as good roads, public health, power, public transportation, security of lives and property (especially in the volatile areas of Northern Nigeria currently under the scourge of Boko Haram), etc. The general and obvious argument is the multiplier effect the increase in the pump price of petrol is having on transportation, which is affecting the price of all goods and services. According to Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index May 2011, ‘Transportation’ as well as ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels’ come up to about 23% of the average household expenditure. However, such changes in the price of PMS have been known to have a severe multiplier effect on general price levels – especially food (over 50% of CPI) and imported items.

To further enrage Nigerians, various analysis of Government expenditure including N1 billion to be spent on feeding in the statehouse in 2012 proposed budget.

Proposed Solutions:

• Reverse the decision and restore fuel prices to pre Jan 1
• Government should live up to their responsibility to provide for Nigerian people
• Government should cut down waste

Tam David West. His argument is that the cost of producing PMS locally should amount to about N40, therefore – the people of Nigeria have been paying an ‘incompetence tax’ of N25 per litre to the government. His opinion stems from the change in government policy during IBB’s regime in the second republic to stop ‘off-shore processing’ in the interest of fuel importation. On whether the refineries will be fixed, he says ‘they will not do it, because the refineries have been recurrently sabotaged to cause recurrent fuel scarcity to justify recurrent fuel importation’. He also talks about the lack of transparency in the oil sector and contrasts it with the success of Buhari’s government in checking illegal oil bunkering. He also harps on the level of waste in government, including salaries of Governors. He alluded that Obasanjo changed fuel prices on a whim, being an argument for the non-existence of a subsidy.

A video interview with General Muhammad Buhari which tows the same line with David-West’s argument describes the process of ‘off-shore processing’ in more detail. The difference between local refining capacity and anticipated needs of the Nigerian people would be anticipated ahead of time and oil companies would be issued a commiserate amount of Nigerian crude oil to refine and bring back into the country.

Proposed Solutions:

• Good governance, election of worthy individuals who are not thieves
• Repair refineries first and sell petroleum at lower price
• A return to off-shore processing, rather than importation is insinuated

Nasir El Rufai via his AIT interview on the same issue, had this to say

‘Ideologically, there is no one that would support the waste inherent in this subsidy, but this administration has showed no interest in solving the problems of corruption, in getting the refineries to work – they have made no effort at all. And they have not even threatened to audit the 1.4 Trillion subsidy that somebody has taken that we all know, and everyone in the government knows that it is impossible for that quantity of petroleum products to be imported into this country…. You can audit these things and catch all those people who have stolen money from this country, you have not done that and you are asking every other Nigerian to pay more for petrol… it is not the best option to address the issue.’

He further states that there is only one point through which refined petroleum products are getting into Nigeria, the Atlas Cove Jetty in lagos, and that an audit of the on-goings at that Jetty will provide information to bring the fraudulent oil importers to book. (See Endnote – On Corruption at the Atlas Cove Jetty)

Proposed Solutions:

• Audit the additional 1 trillion expenditure on oil subsidies during 2011 and prosecute the cabal
• First put in place palliative measures
• Stagger the removal of subsidy over time
• Reduce the cost of government – cut down the number of special assistants and aides and other expenditure responsible for the ballooning cost of government. He laughed off the 25% reduction in basic salaries announced by President GEJ, comparing it to the 50% pay cuts of the Northern Regional Government in 1962 before embarking on national austerity measures.

Femi Fani-Kayode expresses vehement rejection of the fuel subsidy removal, blaming the World Bank and the IMF for being behind the decision. Notable also is his intense suspiscion of Ngozi Okonko Iweala about whom we said:

She serves the interests of the IMF and the World Bank more than she does the interests of the Nigerian people. That has always been the case but OBJ controlled her with a firm hand when we were in power and he used her to secure a good deal for us on the foreign debt issue because she knew the system. If the World Bank asks her to jump she will ask ”how high”?

I do not trust these foreign international monetry institutions and those that work for them and my vast knowledge of history shows me that wherever they go in the world they only spread misery, poverty, unreasonable conditionalities, misery and wickedness. Their yoke is heavy and they are simply tools of oppression that are firmly in the control of all-mighty America and western Europe. These are the forces and the people that are causing GEJ to derail.

Proposed Solutions:

• Prosecute the cabal that have robbed Nigeria of 1 trillion within 2011
• Rejection of arm-twisting by the IMF/World Bank
• Restoration of pre-Jan 1 fuel prices

Endnote: On Corruption the Atlas Cove Jetty

The Atlas Cove Jetty, commissioned in 1981, is designed as a transit depot to supply all the depots along system 2B- Ejigbo Satellite, Mosimi, Ibadan , Ilorin and Ore , regarded as the most active depot system in the country. According to the Managing Director of the NNPC (July 2009), the Atlas Cove Jetty ‘accounts for 12 million litres out of the 30million litres of fuel that is consumed everyday in Nigeria’. He said this shortly after the attack of the Atlas Cove Jetty by MEND and the subsequent heroic repair of the Jetty by staff of the PPMC. His response to a previous newspaper report alleging massive fraud in the Jetty as culled from the official news article on NNPCs website is as follows:

Stanley remarked that it is weird for anybody to insinuate that the NNPC has abandoned the Atlas Cove in preference for private depots because of the phantom pecuniary interest of a `certain clique’ within the corporation as alleged by the newspaper report.

“it sounds unreasonable for anybody to argue that we have abandoned this place. It is not possible and practicable for us to do so because this is the heartbeat of fuel storage and distribution in the country’’.

“There is nothing to suggest any form of underhand dealing or sharp practice, rather Capital Oil and Folawiyo Energy Services Limited should be commended for supporting the NNPC and PPMC instead of accusing the officials of going into the partnership for selfish reasons,” he concluded.

_________________________

The Fraud in Subsidy at Atlas Cove

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/01/the-fraud-in-subsidy-business-the-shady-deals-at-atlas-cove/

Femi Fani Kayode on Okonjo Iweala and the IMF/World Bank https://www.facebook.com/femifanikayode/posts/2284472000711

NNPC News Article on repair of Atlas Cove Jetty http://www.nnpcgroup.com/PublicRelations/NNPCinthenews/tabid/92/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/122/Atlas-Cove-Attack-How-Gallant-NNPC-Engineers-Saved-Nigeria-from-Fuel-Calamity.aspx

Ben TV Interview with Femi Fani Kayode http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFZ1CbZR9Qw&feature=share

Tam David-West interview on Channels TV
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0MUoK2Xuw4

El Rufai interview on AIT ‘Matters Arising’
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJUuz-KHgj0

General Buhari on subsidy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmG_dYY7YRA&feature=related

It is clear that the subsidy removal is an attempt to come up with an economic solution to the social problems of corruption, collusion of political elite with the private sector and poor levels of accountability in governance – in the oil sector. It might not be the best way to go about it, but given the facts… it is the most sensible in the long run! 

Unfortunately, we will be plunged into an exceeding difficult economic situation as the cost of transportation, a major part of the average Nigerian’s expenditure, will lead to increases in the price of ALL goods and services. There is no way to romanticize about this reality. It means the disposable income of families will diminish, businesses may be forced to shut down or lay off workers and people will generally become more discontent as a result of the memory of forgone alternatives. The possible spill over effect of this cannot be quantified: religious frenzy, activism, increase in crime, etc. 

However, economic crises such as these have the potential to correct a lot of things wrong in the system – and as a people, we are infamous for our ability to adapt with a smile. In the words of Fela… ‘suffering and smiling’. The potential economic hardship is a threat mainly to us, it is not the biggest threat to the next generation of Nigerians. 

I unreservedly support any activities that aim at:

1. improving the quality of infrastructure in critical sectors that will make production possible for businesses (power, security, metro ICT infrastructure, etc) and make life possible for Nigerians (agriculture, health, education, public transportation, etc)
2. achieving lasting changes at reducing the cost of governance (salaries of federal officers and legislators, frivolous overheads and allowances, etc)
3. improving accountability and public access to information on how government is run (a freedom of information bill that is not neutered, transparent public procurement practices and the establishment of an efficient corporate tax/environmental safety regime, etc)
4. improving the access to capital for young entrepreneurs, SMEs and businesses wanting to expand  (not in the likeness of the Apprentice wannabe – Youwin)

Bubbling Under:

@dappy_maiye: Subsidy don comot and dis wife is serving her husband wit ½ meat

@Gidi_Traffic: #FuelSubsidy,big boys will soon start snapping pics with their full tanks.

10
@eigthsense: BREAKING NEWS: Stolen car found. Fuel tank empty!!! That’s the benefit of subsidy removal

9
Source unknown: If he leaves the A.C running in the car when he runs out to get something from the store, he loves you. Marry him.

8
Fappyboi: Fuel subsidy is our punishmnt 4 laughin @ Jonathan’s wife

7
_Aminu_: With fuel subsidy gone… Dating a girl in gwarinpa while u live in maitama is long distance relationship.

6
Source Unknown:
Bob: Daddy, did you hear that they haff remove fuel subsidy?
Father: Is that so?
Bob: Yes Dad, the price is up to N150 per litre. What are your thoughts?
Dad: go and put off that generator!

5
@N6CoolFM: How come Not One SINGLE Nigerian Pastor Predicted this #FuelSubsidy at their Watch Nite Services yesterday *Side Eye!*

4
@atomquietmoney: Beer is N300, fuel is N141, Boys can’t afford to drink and drive… #fuelsubsidy

3
brain_freez_: walk the walk #fuelsubsidy

2
Abu_Dp: All these girls forming *I cannot push car* GOD will catch you this period…

1
“@RoyalPriest1: And funny enuf,dis subsidy thing cud b a joke O°˚˚˚ since GEJ even looks like baba suwe.

Final Word:

@JesseOguns : I’m helping Grandma sell stuff in her shop. I told her about fuel subsidy, she said in 2 weeks Nigerians would adapt.

- We overestimate what can be done in a day and underestimate what can be done in a year.
Moral: Give yourself time to accomplish your dreams, but commit to tracking your progress over time.

- We overestimate the importance of the things we lack, and underestimate the usefulness of what we have available to us.
Moral: If the grass is greener on the other side of the fence, you can bet the water bill is higher. It is a bad workman that blames his tools.

- We overestimate the significance of rules/doctrines and underestimate the importance of knowing and accepting who we really are.
Moral: Going to church doesn’t make you a Christian, any more than standing in a garage makes you a car.

- We overestimate the importance of specialization and underestimate the importance of balanced general knowledge.
Moral: Computers are far better than humans at solving complicated problems with clearly defined pathways to answers, but they are helpless in the face of ambiguous problems. Its an ambiguous world.

Lastly, read the first one again!

Happy New Year!!

I previously put up an extract from a working paper I am writing, I wanted to get comments on what I might have missed or misinterpreted. This post will go back up soon, but I have decided to communicate directly with a few people by email instead.

Thanks.

Whether your dreams give you passion or your dreams make you afraid… Never stop dreaming and don’t stop believing!!!

If you don’t get the joke. A little hint…

The birds are Crows.

“I have been visibly absent from the world of blogging for 2 weeks, busy working on a million things, as usual, while trying to fight the pervasive apathy that always seems to haunt me… and my generation. I can only hope that others fare better than I have, though on the whole, I did not do so bad.”
This post has been long overdue. A post about the true meaning of knowledge. I had a little discussion this afternoon that awakened the desire to write this.
I met someone today who took me up when I said all I wanted to do was graduate and make money. This fellow, who obviously was not used to my habit of embellishment and over expression took it that I meant exactly what I said i.e graduate and make money alone. In his words, knowledge was more important than money. We ended up reaching a compromise on our perspectives on the issue, however the discourse uncovered a few common myths about knowledge, which I address in this post.

Myth One: Knowledge is more important than money
First of all, knowledge, as well as money are not an end in themselves, except for insecure and shallow individuals who require ammunition to wave in the faces of others. They are a means to an end. As a result, they are neither as important individually or collectively, as the end to which their quest is aimed. It is like saying a hammer is more important than a saw in a wood workshop. They are distinct items, which belong to different categories. A hammer may be used to straighten or create a saw, and a saw may be used to carve the wooden handle of the hammer, but essentially such a relationship as might exist between them does not necessarily become a harbinger of superiority, no matter how compelling the argument might be.

Myth Two: Knowledge brings money
This is an offshoot of the first myth, and it is usually a popular argument for proponents of the first. Fact: knowledge has been known to bring money. Countless individuals have had the fortune of their next five generations secured on the winds of the knowledge they had or uncovered. Today, discoveries are a powerful back bone of the world’s most successful enterprises. However, at the same time, so much that has been deemed as knowledge has lost individuals and corporations loads of cash, time and respect. I need not say more. Therefore, knowledge can bring money, but acquisition of additional knowledge does not guaranty a windfall of naira notes or foreign currency. What is however TRUE is that The right kind of knowledge brings money. Now, classifying knowledge is both limiting and liberating. How? It is left to the individual to determine what knowledge is capable of bringing in money. Thus, define knowledge. Go figure.

Myth Three: No knowledge is wasted
This might have been true 50 years ago, but today, I hardly see the logic. With the rise of the internet, proliferation of TV, Radio, and other forms of media, one thing that is no longer lacking today is information. Data Smog or Information overload is the new cause of brain drain. Our brains cannot handle the barrage of data so we experience what David Lewis, PhD calls a paralysis of analysis. In today’s world, not only can knowledge be wasted, it can harm your ability to function effectively. The challenge now is to tune out material and information sources that seem unnecessary or to narrow down to seeking only the information that you need. Without an understanding of what your life goals, your strengths, your weaknesses are, you will be forced to compromise and eventually overly engage yourself in irrelevant pursuits.

Myth Four: The more you know the better off you are
This is a much more difficult one to disprove. This is because the human mind is naturally wired towards acquisition and achievement. The notion that physical increase means growth, and acquiring more means improvement is atavistic. In the African context, this concept is even more difficult to grasp. The richer the man, the bigger the house, the bigger the car. For some, the more wives, the more kids etc. In reality, such increase might correlate to greater achievement but sometimes, it only shows greater need, greater depravity and greater need! In Blink… The Power of Thinking without Thinking by Malcom Gladwell, one of my favorite authors, he outlines that sometimes the less we know about a certain topic, the better of we are at making a good decision. Additional information often tends to only distract us from the core issue we have interest in. It works thesame way with the pareto principle, commonly called the 80/20 rule. It states that 80 percent of the results are determined by 20 percent of the action / causes.

Myth Five: Experts can know everything
I am of the opinion that there are two kinds of people: those who dont know, and those who dont know that they dont know.This was posted on the Anecdotes blog (www.anecdotes.com.au) :
The guy who has done this job for 20 years rates himself as good. But the guy doing it for two years rates themselves as expert.
This is a very common trend in todays world. All it takes is a little additonal information to let a person know how little he really knows. What a paradox. This is not to say that some individuals do not have the priviledge and gift of being thoroughly knowledgeable in a specific field. Of course, by all means, but the truth is that there is always more ‘knowledge’ being uncovered from the least likely or most unexpected places capable of disproving the knowledge that you expertly cling to. Think about it, the world was believed to be flat for thousands of years, till Pythagoras or Erastothenes or whoever, discovered that the world was a sphere.

So there you have it, my little take on knowledge. I would like to add that this has been written to the current limit of my knowledge! De javu huh!

‘Tell me what you know, then tell me what you don’t know before you tell me what you think’ – Colin Powell

‘There are two kinds of people. Those who don’t know and then those who don’t know that they don’t know’ – Unknown

‘Amateurs tend to have a much higher estimation of their capability than experienced Professionals do’ – Seth Godin